Flames visit Red Wings for battle between division leaders

Hockey Betting Lines

03/12/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of Western Conference division leaders face off tonight in the Motor City, where the reigning Stanley Cup champion Detroit Red Wings will attempt to maintain their recent mastery of the slumping Calgary Flames.

Although Calgary presently owns an eight-point advantage over second-place Vancouver in the Northwest Division, the club isn't heading into the season's stretch run with much momentum. After opening up a current seven-game road trip with a pair of victories, the Flames have been dealt three straight regulation losses.

Calgary was more competitive in its most recent setback, a 3-2 defeat to Atlantic Division front-runner New Jersey on Tuesday in which the team outshot the Devils by a 37-31 count. Prior to that game, the Flames suffered lopsided losses at Carolina (6-1) and Atlanta (5-2).

On a positive note, newcomer Olli Jokinen scored his third goal in four games since being acquired by Calgary in a trade-deadline deal with Phoenix on March 4. Fellow Finland native Miikka Kiprusoff wasn't as productive in Tuesday's loss, however, as the standout goaltender allowed three New Jersey goals on 28 shots before being removed early in the third period.

The Flames, who own a 17-14-2 road record for the season and will also visit Toronto on this trek, will attempt to get back on track versus a Detroit squad it has had trouble against in the past. The Red Wings have won five of the last six regular-season matchups between the clubs, including both previous battles in 2008-09, and Calgary has lost eight in a row -- including three playoff defeats in 2006-07 -- at Joe Louis Arena.

Calgary's last victory in Detroit came on December 1, 2005.

The Red Wings also sport one of the best home marks in the NHL this season, a 25-5-3 ledger, and added to that win total with Tuesday's overtime decision over visiting Phoenix. Johan Franzen scored with 1:25 remaining in the extra session to lift Detroit to a 3-2 triumph over the Coyotes, the team's third victory in its last four games.

Both Franzen and Valtteri Filppula finished with a goal and an assist to help the Red Wings rebound from an ugly 8-2 home loss to Columbus on Saturday. Ty Conklin did his part as well, with the journeyman goaltender stopping 23-of-25 shots on the night.

With Tuesday's win, Detroit kept pace with San Jose in the race for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Both teams enter tonight's play with a league- best 96 points.

Goldclubcasion Hockey Betting News

<< Golf Tidbits: Is Sergio the next No. 1?
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Can you believe it has been 10 long years since a young up-and-coming Sergio Garcia burst onto the scene at the 1999 PGA Championship? Garcia nearly ran down eventual winner Tiger Woods to earn his first

<< Slumping Suns welcome LeBron, Cavs to desert
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Now is not the time for the Phoenix Suns to play poor basketball as they try to make a push towards a playoff berth. Tonight the Suns will resume a three-game homestand versus MVP candidate LeBron James and t

<< Big West: Spurs host Lakers in Alamo City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Southwest Division-leading San Antonio Spurs will wrap up a four-game homestand Thursday against the Western Conference-powerhouse Los Angeles Lakers at the AT&T Center. The Spurs have won the first three tests

<< Big East quarterfinals pits Panthers against Mountaineers
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers begin defense of their Big East Tournament title tonight, as they battle the West Virginia Mountaineers in the quarterfinal round at Madison Square Garden. The team that come

<< Tigers begin quest for fourth straight C-USA crown
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fourth-ranked Memphis Tigers start their journey for a fourth straight Conference USA Tournament championship tonight, as they host the Tulane Green Wave in the quarterfinal round at the FedExForum. The winner

Struggling Bruins aim to snap Sens' win streak >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The struggling Boston Bruins will try to avoid a third consecutive defeat when they host the streaking Ottawa Senators in tonight's Northeast Division battle at TD Banknorth Garden. Boston is coming off consecutive losses

Lightning slide into Toronto >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Lightning are hoping a matchup with the Toronto Maple Leafs will enable them to break out of their current slide. The team aims for its fourth straight win over the Leafs when it visits the Air Canada Centre thi

Playoff-hopeful Sabres, Panthers clash in Buffalo >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A key battle in the Eastern Conference playoff race is on tap tonight in Buffalo, as the struggling Sabres host the Florida Panthers tonight at HSBC Arena. The Panthers are currently last among the eight playoff seeds in t

Devils welcome Coyotes to Garden State >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first-place New Jersey Devils will face one of the bottom teams in the Western Conference tonight, as they host the Phoenix Coyotes at Prudential Center. With 89 points, the Devils have a seven-point lead over Philadel

Gainey and Habs try to build momentum against Isles >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A sudden coaching change produced an instant boost for the Montreal Canadiens. The embattled club will now try to build off that encouraging victory when the New York Islanders invade the Bell Centre this evening. Just on

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.

Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Odds

Will he or won't he?  Now that the Dallas Cowboys have a new head coach in Wade Phillips, the big question will be: Does Terrell Owens stay with the team.

Jerry Jones continues to suggest that Terrell Owens will remain with the team.

"I've said that he's back, he's here, he's under contract," Jones said. "In the interviews I've just been through (to hire a new coach), it was very clear to me how highly he's thought of and how much of an impact he had on our offensive success."

Just to be sure though, Terrell Owens cleared out his locker and removed his name plate.

Terrell Owens was among the Cowboys most productive players this past season, catching 85 passes for 1,180 yards and a league-best 13 touchdowns.

But T.O. is due a $3 million roster bonus in June, then a $5 million salary this season. Cutting him before then would save a lot of money and headaches.

Aside from the questions surrounding Terrell Owens, the oddsmakers at MySportsbook.com have concerns over starting quarterback Tony Romo's state of mind and whether he will remain a starting quarterback.  It is also not known how players will adjust to new head coach, Wade Phillips.

Here are the football odds as seen at MySportsbook.com and subject to change after February 10, 2007 if not locked in prior to that date.
Arizona Cardinals 60-1


Atlanta Falcons 50-1


Baltimore Ravens 15-1


Buffalo Bills 50-1


Carolina Panthers 18-1


Chicago Bears 10-1


Cincinnati Bengals 15-1


Cleveland Browns 100-1


Dallas Cowboys 15-1


Denver Broncos 15-1


Detroit Lions 100-1


Green Bay Packers 50-1


Houston Texans 100-1


Indianapolis Colts 6-1


Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1


Kansas City Chiefs 30-1


Miami Dolphins 40-1


Minnesota Vikings 75-1


New England Patriots 10-1


New Orleans Saints 18-1


New York Giants 20-1


New York Jets 30-1


Oakland Raiders 100-1


Philadelphia Eagles 18-1


Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1


Saint Louis Rams 60-1


San Diego Chargers 6-1


San Francisco 49ers 75-1


Seattle Seahawks 20-1


Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75-1


Tennessee Titans 40-1


Washington Redskins 50-1

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook credit cards needs.